WOMEN LIKELY TO THRONG TO THE VOW THIS WEEKEND (Updated)

Last weekend — the weekend of the Super Bowl — belonged to the men. This weekend, which ushers in Valentine’s Day on Tuesday, belongs to the opposite sex. That, at any rate, is the prediction of box office pundits, who figure that the tear jerker The Vow, which concerns a woman, played by Rachel McAdams, who loses her memory in an accident and must fall in love all over again with her husband, played by Channing Tatum, all over again, will earn $35-40 million. That’s about twice what last weekend’s top film, Chronicle, earned. This weekend also brings back the first of George Lucas’s Star Wars prequels, The Phantom Menace, this time in 3D. Box office forecasters figure the movie should earn around $25 million, based on the earnings of Disney’s 3D remakes. Studios are looking to see whether audiences, which have made the DVD version a part of most home video collections, will want to return to theaters to see it in 3D. In particular 20th Century Fox, which is releasing the movie, will no doubt be assessing its performance in preparation for its re-release of Titanic in 3D on April 4. Also on tap this weekend is the Denzel Washington/Ryan Reynolds starrer Safe House, which forecasters predict will earn around $20-25 million, and Journey 2: Mysterious Island, a sequel to 2008’s Journey to the Center of the Earth that may earn $10-15 million.

UPDATE:
Daily Variety said late Friday that Safe House appears likely to pull off the weekend’s “biggest surprise” by raking in sales “in the mid-$30 million range,” based on early Friday box office grosses. However, Deadline.com is saying that Friday’s frontrunner was The Vow and that it is likely to wind up with $39 million for the weekend versus $38 million for Safe House. In either case, the results would be far above analysts’ best forecasts.