ANALYST: AEREO WILL PREVAIL

BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield is predicting that a New York appeals court will uphold a district court decision denying a request by broadcasters for a preliminary injunction to halt Barry Diller’s Aereo service. In a note to clients posted today (Thursday) Greenfield writes that he attended the appeals court hearing on Friday and expressed his surprise that the broadcasters resorted to “factual inaccuracies” that were effectively challenged by the three-judge panel. “We continue to believe Aereo does not violate copyright law and expect broadcasters to lose their appeal related to the injunction and lose the underlying case as well,” Greenfield writes. He acknowledges that if Aereo prevails, broadcasters’ expectations to raise their rates for cable and satellite retransmissions are likely to suffer “a meaningful blow.” On the other hand, he observes, such an outcome would represent “a big positive” for the cable and satellite providers who have been “suffering from ever-increasing retrans costs.”